tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8735388569178359001.post9105763213835891257..comments2023-09-12T03:00:44.772-07:00Comments on ::Colored Opinions::: Africa's Revolutionaries Resourcing In Communist ChinaUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8735388569178359001.post-14172787454697700682011-11-10T13:54:50.446-08:002011-11-10T13:54:50.446-08:00Good points. I think a citizens movement, if we a...Good points. I think a citizens movement, if we are to see one, will likely arise out of the evangelical movement in most of Central Africa. Beyond cellphones, that is a very new and- putting aside the gay stuff- a very good development. So, as these churches build leadership among the people, at some point that leadership will start to weigh in on public life. Hopefully, its in a way that expands democratic rights more broadly in the region as opposed to "get the gays" or "no abortion". In Congo, I could see a fairly deep women's movement for greater rights given I've seen them in action in these churches and its clear its a concern for them. Or maybe ending school fees.<br /><br />Point is, I think we will see a movement for X come first from the base of evangelicals since that's the only thing most people in Rwanda, Uganda, Congo, Burundi control at the local level. The Malawi model is instructive here given its mostly the faith community pressuring Muthika which, I'll add, makes it hard for him to clamp down too viciously.<br /><br />In Rwanda, I think it will take time for such a process to develop. While people go on and on about "Le Dicator Kagame", I personally feel Kagame is making a "Singapore bargain" with his people. Namely, "The Kigali elite will control it all, and, in exchange, we will help you get rich". <br /><br />That's a very smart bargain in my opinion and one enemies of this regime can't really fight against. If in 5 years, Rwandans own their farms, solid businesses, have a bank account, perhaps a home, and a cellphone do these folks really believe they will throw that all away for a rebellion? Wealth, no matter how small, is a MAJOR motivator for folks and when it is risks being lost people will ignore efforts at destabilization. I have two friends in Kigali. One owns a nice hostel and the other a hip bar. Both are Hutu and both hate Kagame. Both also have recently purchased flats, welcomed their first kids (one has a Tutsi wife, the other an Israeli wife), took vacations to the Kenyan coast, and have new cars. Neither wants any of this to disappear because of Tutsi's hold on power and would not look kindly on an effort to stop growth from outsiders. This is just two people ofcourse but it is illustrative of Rwanda's growing middle class.<br /><br />Thus, Rwanda society is more "get rich" and less "get god" than others so I doubt they will participate in any upcoming movements. It's possible but highly improbable.<br /><br />DutchAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8735388569178359001.post-64379451473921251502011-11-10T03:13:43.359-08:002011-11-10T03:13:43.359-08:00Thanks again for your comment. Feedback helps to f...Thanks again for your comment. Feedback helps to form new ideas! I should look into how Atta and Goodluck operate in this. Sounds very interesting. Especially Atta seems an exceptional politican from his wikipedia page. Maybe the east-african community can become a force for democracy as the EU has been for eastern european states. But that's maybe whistfull thinking. I don't really see a movement like the Lech Walesa movement in east Africa. <br /><br />In the past I argued that the war in Congo was similar to the Yoegoslavian conflict, and that in the end stability is inevitable. But all these regimes that are still dominated by revolutionaries seems like a huge risk in east africa.<br /><br />Maybe an prohibition movement across the great lakes region could gain some traction as a citizen movement (just a balloon).Colored Opinionshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17172030328954992750noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8735388569178359001.post-31457650551280215102011-11-09T08:03:24.756-08:002011-11-09T08:03:24.756-08:00Agreed, Vincent. I am in total agreement with bot...Agreed, Vincent. I am in total agreement with both the narrative and meta-narrative.<br /><br />I guess what I'm questioning is the strategic position of African leaders (vs the public) embracing China too closely.<br /><br />Atta and Goodluck seem to get that its a delicate dance with China and, to a lesser degree, Iran. They've both stated that at the end of the day China is a competitor for low wage, labor intensive investment- which is what they need to bring youth employment and thus their own survival down- and both are unstable regimes long term. <br /><br />Clearly, one should put your eggs in any one basket regardless of the country and, in terms of bringing down the costs of a "China project", it makes sense to play China, Brazil, and India off each other.<br /><br />More importantly for the short term is the obvious: if Europe cannot get a grip on the debt crisis, demand will fall there and in the US. Such a crisis would severely effect all BRIC countries which, ofcourse, would mean China $$ would dry up for African leaders.<br /><br />So bottomline: hitching oneself to the China trade has to be done cautiously given the fragility of the world "recovery" and the growing domestic pressures in China itself. <br /><br />Personally, I'd like to see Nigeria, Kenya, and South Africa become the anchor of growth for the world. All three should create a master plan that develops the continent, encourages deeper democratization, and forms the necessary monetary/fiscal union to compete in the world market as ONE entity. In terms of volatile Central Africa, all three recognize that long-term peace in the region will require a)creating a lasting piece between the Hutu/Tutsi in Rwanda and Tutsi's in Congo vis a vis the Congolese b)supporting Uganda's growing democratic movement/putting Museveni out to pasture c)demanding the Congolese elite get focused on state rebuilding and security sector reform. <br /><br />That's my dream atleast. :)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8735388569178359001.post-87738109254346863622011-11-09T05:58:04.595-08:002011-11-09T05:58:04.595-08:00The Chinese communist influence in Africa runs muc...The Chinese communist influence in Africa runs much deeper then the general public assumed over the years. Journalists have largely ignored the deep ties between Chinese communist party, umkhonto we siwzwe, Cuba, Kagame, Museveni, Des Santos. The narrative was allways the greatness of Mandela, Congo's failed state and the evil of the genocide in Rwanda.Colored Opinionshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17172030328954992750noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8735388569178359001.post-82886397242298385992011-11-08T14:47:20.727-08:002011-11-08T14:47:20.727-08:00From my understanding, back in the day African des...From my understanding, back in the day African despots tried to counter-balance the West with the Soviets.<br /><br />And we all know what became of them.<br /><br />Now, in yet another attempt for legitimacy, they want to turn to Iran and China? Two regimes that could implode at any moment?<br /><br />Good lord Africans desperately need more strategic and thoughtful leaders.<br /><br />Breaking bread with these regimes is a fool's errand. India, yes. Brazil, yes. These countries are doing it right, governing well, and are social democrats. <br /><br />As such, they will last much longer on the world scene that the likes of China, Iran, or Cuba.<br /><br />DutchAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com