Sunday, October 30, 2011

Mitt Romney's Risky Bet On Early Win & Jim DeMint's Moment

Chris Cillizza explains the choice Republicans have to make between now and January:
"A victory in Iowa — no matter how narrow — coupled with another win just days later in the New Hampshire primary would almost certainly end the race and make Romney the nominee."
The Nevada frontloading, with Romney's fingerprints all over it, makes clear the Mitt Romney campaign is aiming to end this race by winning these early contests. It increases the stakes for Mitt Romney in Iowa and New Hampshire and plays right into the "who will Jim DeMint crown?" narrative.

A narrative that has become the strongest undercurrent in the race for the nomination which could well hand victory to Ron Paul. Nate Silver's mathematical Iowa Caucus projection makes Ron Paul a clear favorite in Iowa. Ron Paul's support among former Huckabee supporters and other active GOP bloggers seems rising and much stronger then reflected in the media. Two top Huckabee 2008 blogger LD Jackson endorsed Ron Paul this week.  Another top Huckabee 2008 blogger, One Mom, ranks Ron Paul at the top of her list. And, as intrade analyst homer_Simpson writes:
"He has the money and the organization now. He also benefits from the caucus format. He already completely dominates the younger crowd, and Paul supporters generally are more dedicated than supporters of other candidates. He's also spending more campaign money than anyone else on really effective ads. He's also timing it perfectly, so that he's in perfect position to pick up Cain votes when Cain falls down. "
On foreign Policy both Sarah Palin and Jim DeMint have recently made statements that can be read as endorsements of Ron Paul's humble foreign policy. An important indication a large segment of the party is moving in his direction. Jack Hunter, Ron Paul's campaignblogger from South Carolina(!), points out in his blogpost Paul, Daniels, Barbour and Christie vs. GOP Establishment on Foreign Policy:
 “One-time possible 2012 Republican presidential contenders like Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie have all expressed foreign policy views similar to what Paul espouses. Yet, each of these Republican leaders decision to not enter this race has left Paul as the only viable candidate making the argument for a more practically prudent and fiscally responsible foreign policy"
Allthough polls and pundits don't see it yet Ron Paul could pull off a Pat Buchanan in both Iowa and New Hampshire which would give Jim DeMint the golden oppotunity to endorse Ron Paul ahead of South Carolina. The endorsement of Ron Paul by Jim DeMint at the right time would effectively end Mitt Romney's campaign because that magical moment would signal the succesfull merger of the old Christian Coalition, the new tea party and Ron Paul's campaign for liberty. The Republican establishment is still hoping the Jim DeMint moment will not occur. As Dominick Abbate from Greenville SC says:
"If Jim DeMint stands and gets behind Ron Paul, Ron Paul will be President of the United States"

No comments: