Saturday, August 13, 2011

Will DeMint Crown Perry Or Paul?

Today Rick Perry joins the race at the highly symbolic redstate blogger gathering in Jim DeMint's South Carolina. Allthough Mike Huckabee thought Perry was dissing the people of Iowa , to me it's clear he is actually targeting Ron Paul. RedState has been hostile to Ron Paul for years. Just remember the ban for Ron Paul's supporters to join Redstate in 2007? Redstate is clearly pandering to the pro-Israel and anti-Islam crowd inside US politics. Erick Erickson confirmed his hostility towards Ron Paul in a post in july which simply read
"Ron Paul will not be the nominee"
Waiting for the straw poll results... #tcot #tlot #iowastrawp... on Twitpic
The hostility is completely based on foreign policy differences.

Statements by Donald Trump (@realdonaldtrump) on twitter today:
"Ron Paul is right that we are wasting trillions of dollars in Iraq and Afghanistan."
and by Mike Huckabee
“but I don’t think his message is credible. And his statement on Iran the other night was totally off-the-wall.” (Keep in mind that  Mike Huckabee has moved from moderate to religious-right hawk on foreign policy since his failed run in 2008)
Illustrate that this race for the Republican presidency is a debate on foreign policy.

Those, like (pro-war) Toby Harnden, reporter at UK's The Daily Telegraph, who claim Ron Paul's foreign policy is "way outside the mainstream" are conveniently forgetting that this debate is not confined to the Republican party nor limited to questions surrounding the Iraq war and Islamic terrorism.

(On a sidenote, those policymakers "sitting behind large desks in places like New York and Washington DC" who think unconditional support and active PR for anti-democratic free press predators like Paul Kagame in central Africa scores points among grassroot Republican and Democratic activists should  "Have Their Heads Examined". )

By failing to engage, as Mary Joyce wrote july 2010, US foreign policy hawks from both parties are heading for a rude awakening, dubbed "the iceberg school of politics" by Melanie Phillips, which
 "threatens to sink their ship"!
Jim DeMint, who calls himself "more of a change agent than a supporting actor", has positioned himself at the heart of this debate. Marc Callagher states correctly that Ron Paul still has time to bring Jim DeMint around on foreign policy, especially as it relates to economics. As Ron Paul campaign blogger Jack Hunter from South Carolina wrote yesterday:
"Most importantly — and this is key — Paul is the only candidate who has mentioned that we can no longer afford trillions of dollars to fight wars that don’t make sense."
At the Republican Leadership Conference in New Orleans in june Jim DeMint said about Ron Paul:
"I used to think you were crazy Ron, but I'm starting to think I'm a little crazy myself."
Jim DeMint is aiming to pull the libertarian and "Francis Schaeffer" factions of the Republican party together. This represents a clear window of opportunity for the Ron Paul campaign. In my perception it is highly unlikely that this foreign policy debate will be decided by some Christian pro-Israel pressure group or some Rick Perry prayer meeting in Texas.

The ideal outcome for Jim DeMint would be a clear Ron Paul victory in Iowa and New Hampshire which would make his endorsement a logical third step.

Using Nate Silver's article"Why Ames actually matters" on the predictive power of the Ames straw poll (the Cavalcade), Michael O'Brien and Cameron Joseph conclude in the Hill:
"Paul's finish in Ames makes Paul's candidacy look less like a longshot, and more like a realistic possibility. The straw poll is a good, if imperfect, indicator of Republicans choice to win next February's caucuses, and Paul's finish on Saturday makes it seem increasingly plausible that he could win those contests"

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