Monday, August 8, 2011

Ron Paul: Emerging Top Challenger To Mitt Romney

Molly Ball (politico) writes today:
"No candidate will come out of Ames the same as he or she went in. Some may not come out at all. And one will emerge as the top challenger to Mitt Romney"
Joe Jordan at the Nebraskwatchdog claims however:
"the winner of this Saturday’s GOP Straw Poll in Ames, Iowa has little chance of making it to the White House."
Today's rasmussen poll confirms that Ron Paul's time has come.
The Republican race between the Ames straw poll and the Iowa Caucus will be shaped by the two basic facts described by Molly Ball and Joe Jordan. In my perception this leads to this unescapable reality concerning the period between the straw poll and the Iowa Caucus: Bachmann is in a no-win situation, winning or losing Ames won't help her. This is why.
  • A Bachmann loss at the straw poll will allmost certainly lead to the implosion of her campaign.
  • The Bachmann implosion will lead to increased support for Ron Paul and/or Tim Pawlenty.
However:
  • A Bachmann win at the Ames straw poll won't necessarily translate into a win at the Iowa Caucus.
The reason the Ames straw poll has been a poor indicator of the eventually nominee or winner of the primaries and presidential election has more to do with the candidates then with the Ames straw poll. Bachmann fits exactedly into the category of potential Ames winners that have zero chance of winning either the nomination or the general elections! A campaign strategy that intentionally antagonizes large segments of the core Republican base won't go anywhere in the long run. Bachmann's campaign is destined to implode. We just don't know if it will happen next saturday, at the Iowa Caucus or in New Hampshire.
Ron Paul's victory in Iowa would however establish him firmly in the heartland of mainstream Republican politics. The strength of Ron Paul's campaign is the ability to appeal to all segments of the Republican base which would make his Ames victory significant not just in Iowa, but also in New Hampshire and South Carolina.

Bachmann's campaign's implosion would put Ron Paul in the driver's seat for a Iowa Caucus win. Once the tea party coalesces around Ron Paul a Jim DeMint endorsement would become inevitable. Once Jim DeMint endorses Ron Paul, Mike Huckabee's endorsement won't be far away, mark my words!

Bachmann campaign strategists know exactedly what her weakness is, as illustrated in a tweet by Iowa journalist Kathie Obradovich over the weekend saying she:

"calls herself a “unifying candidate” who can attract disaffected Democrats and independents who voted for Obama"
The Ames straw poll , the Iowa Caucus and the first in the nation primary in New Hampshire will demonstrate the exact opposite.  I trust the Republican base to wake up just in time.

No comments: