Thursday, August 18, 2011

Huckabee 2008 Bloggers Heavily Leaning Towards Ron Paul

Steve Dennis wrote in the comment section on a LD Jackson (strong pro-Huckabee blogger in 2007-2008) blogpost of a video interview with Ron Paul:
"I am listening to the interview right now and there is a stark difference between this Ron Paul and the one we hear in the debates."
LD Jackson wrote in that same comment section:
"I was struck by that difference as well, Steve. The man really makes a lot of sense, when he has the time. Too many times, the debates turn into squabbling matches, such as we witnessed in Iowa, and it does not give us a true glimpse of his positions. I was quite impressed."
Similar message on the Huckabee supporting blogger of 2007-2008,
Onemom, who wrote on monday:
"As of now, I still haven’t made my final decision about who to support for President. Unless Mike Huckabee changes his mind and jumps in the race, whoever I support will be someone from the great state of Texas, with the initials R.P. I will say this though, Rick Perry is going to have to do a lot of work to convince me that he is not just another game playing politician. For now, I continue to lean heavily toward Ron Paul. "
These indicators confirm (my own and) Marc McKinnon's predictions in may:
" As usual, I think it's a good bet that Ron Paul will be underestimated and exceed expectations. Perhaps by a lot."
As I said just after the straw poll in Ames:
It's becoming increasingly clear that Ron Paul has the strongest ground operation, is attracting new voters to the Republican party and is making inroads into the Evangelical vote. A clear path to victory in Iowa, New Hampshire and the endorsement of Republican Kingmaker Senator Jim DeMint from South Carolina!
Rick Perry's failed attempt to torpedo Ron Paul's campaign by announcing on the day of the Ames straw poll seems to have backfired and has instead created the dominating narrative with Kingmaker Jim DeMint at the symbolic heart of the Republican nominating process. From now on this Paul Versus Perry narrative is reshaping the race both in Iowa and New Hampshire, mark my words!

For those still doubting Ron Paul's appeal to "Huckabee's" social conservatives, read my post "How Can Libertarian Ron Paul Be Against Abortion?".

For those interested in numbers, Nate Silver has calculated Ron Paul's chances in Iowa at 24.0% compared to Michele Bachmann's 25,3%.  Yesterday's Magellan Strategies New Hampshire poll puts Ron Paul in third place, ahead of Michele Bachmann and right behind Rick Perry: Mitt Romney 36%, Rick Perry 18%  Ron Paul 14%. Michele Bachmann 10%.

With the Rick Perry/Ron Paul narrative sucking all the oxygen out of the Republican room, the numbers in the middle are the ones to watch in coming weeks and months.

For those interested in the interview by local Houston TV Station ABC13 with Ron Paul:

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