For those following the Republican primaries in Iowa, listen to this on the ground report from Iowa by talkshow host Steve Deace.
What surprises me most is that Steve Deace thinks Michele Bachmann will win Iowa. He mentioned "the tipping point" by Malcolm Gladwell. I am not sold on his theory that signing the pledge fixed the field, as he suggests. Signing the pledge actually accentuated the divisiveness of Bachmann's positions.
Foreign policy positions will inevitably become more important in this campaign. Jeffrey Goldberg has started with his article "Hazardous Love for Israel" in which he attacks Bachmann's statements. Ross Douthat discusses foreign policy dynamics within the Republican party.
It seems to me Bachmann is working hard to split the former Huckabee vote in Iowa.
My theory is that the more voters learn about Bachmann and Tim Pawlenty, the more they will acknowledge that these two candidates are not that similar to the Mike Huckabee of 2008. The harder these candidates try, the more it will turn voters away.
At the same time these two candidates are splitting the anti Ron Paul vote in Iowa.
From a purely strategic perspective it seems to me that Ron Paul would have been in a much worse situation if Tim Pawlenty had polled so well at this point.
It allmost looks as if Bachmann is paving the way for a Ron Paul victory in Ames Iowa.